Meta Explores $10 Billion Deal to Sell Computing Power to Anthropic
The reported talks point to a possible new business for Meta, and a fresh sign of how scarce high-end AI compute still is.
Entities: Anthropic, Meta
The New York Times, cited in posts by Mike Isaac and Andrew Curran, reports that Meta is in early talks to lease computing power to Anthropic in a potential $10 billion deal. If it happens, the arrangement could mark the start of a cloud-computing business for Meta, as the company faces scrutiny over heavy AI infrastructure spending. Andrew Curran’s post also says Anthropic proposed a two-year deal in June and that discussions are ongoing.
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News: Meta in early talks to sell computing power to Anthropic in what could be a $10 billion deal if such a move happens, it could mark the start of a cloud computing business for Meta as it faces investor pressure for its AI spending w/ @elitanjourno https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/17/technology/meta-anthropic-ai-computing-power.html
Compute moves to those with the highest margin products. Markets are efficient and rational. It’s not a very good question to ask an AI company "where will you source compute from?". Financialization of compute markets will take some time but will happen. It’s a great question to ask: why would someone pay higher margin for your AI?
After Elon signed his compute-as-a-service deal with Anthropic, the question was who would Mark Zuckerberg back? We may have our answer. The NYT says Anthropic proposed the two year deal in June, META is considering it, and they are currently in discussions.
imo can be read a few ways: meta is "overbuilding" data centers somewhat now for the future, but it doesnt have the demand that Anthropic does, so it leases compute until/IF that demand comes later —SpaceX did the same (other read is meta giving up, but i highly doubt that)
@MillionInt Well said! And the financial instruments are here: see GPU compute forward curves on @Kalshi.
Today, we launched GPU compute forward curves derived from our prediction market prices. Forward curves are now available on Nvidia B200. H200, and A100 chips. Forward curves track implied future prices. They are how mature commodity markets form expectations, allocate capital, and manage risk. Energy, interest rates/SOFR, FX, metals, and agricultural markets all rely on market-implied forward prices. Despite becoming one of the key inputs in the global economy, compute has lacked that market-derived infrastructure. Compute right now is where oil was before NYMEX — traded only via OTC deals, just like oil used to trade OTC between producers and refiners. As compute becomes as fundamental to the economy as energy, the industry will need a similar derivative market to promote efficient price discovery. Prediction markets are uniquely suited to this problem. Compute is not one uniform commodity and spans many chips, grades, tenors, locations, and contract structures. A live prediction market can aggregate those dispersed views into transparent prices that reflect market expectations for different maturities. The opportunity is big. Hyperscalers are spending over $700B on compute this year and the market is expected to grow to $7-10T by 2030. If this market behaves like traditional commodity markets, a liquid derivative market could be 10-20x bigger than the underlying spot market. Compute is still not uniform enough, but this is a step towards standardization as forward curves will help us see the rise and fall of different model prices and how they correlate. The forward curve is a first step. Up next: futures and perps.
After Elon signed his compute-as-a-service deal with Anthropic, the question was who would Mark Zuckerberg back? We may have our answer. The NYT says Anthropic proposed the two year deal in June, META is considering it, and they are currently in discussions.
